The 3rd Conference of Internationalist Standpoint took place between March 30 and April 3. In the course of these 5 days, a number of important discussions took place in a substantial way and in an excellent atmosphere of comradeship and fraternity. The subjects discussed were the following • Developments in the US • The decline of Europe and the crisis of the Left • Identity Politics • The National Question • Checks and Procedures (on issues related to safeguarding internal democracy and righs within ISp) • Building, Reports and Finances

We start with the publication of the resolution on the impact the election of Trump in the US and internationally. The resolution was of course prepared and discussed in the conference before the tariffs imposed by Trump on Wednesday April 2 – that is the reason why there is no specific reference in the resolution.

US and world capitalism under Trump

1. The rise of Donald Trump to power in the United States has sent shockwaves across the planet. Internally it has stunned the working class and the social movements. There were mobilizations of millions on the first inauguration of Donald Trump in 2017 but this time no mass mobilizations took place. The working class and the social movements in the USA are trying to figure out what is the way forward. The ruling classes internationally are trying to understand precisely what will be the impact of Trump’s policies on the global economy and on international relations.
2. Trump’s return to power is part of the generalized rise of the Far-Right (FR), globally but it gives this process a new dimension and a new dynamic. It boosts the self-confidence of the FR internationally as well as that of the fascist organizations or fascist currents within broader FR parties. At the same time, it throws the parties of the Left into further disarray and deeper crisis.
3. Geopolitically, Trump is causing tectonic shifts of what has been considered as stable in recent decades. Most important of all is the huge rift that is being created between the US and the European powers. The European powers have been following “obediently”, more or less, the US in the policies that the latter decided since the end of the World War II – serving of course at the same time their own imperialist interests. This alliance was one of the key factors that enabled the West in general and the United States in particular to dominate the planet, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Trump seems to be bringing this alliance to an abrupt (and shocking to its main protagonists) end.
4. Even more important than the tariffs he has proclaimed to impose on the European economies, is the fact that Trump has ditched diplomacy which has been a cornerstone of the ability of the West to maintain functional relations between its various powers and to have a common approach to major global events – including military interventions. He has replaced diplomatic relations with blunt blackmails, threats, bullying, attacks and insults, towards his (ex-)allies and this is creating a vast drift between the US and Europe, that is going to have a lasting impact.
5. It’s not easy to understand the logic of Trump’s policies. The impression created is that there’s no rationale behind them. Attacking the European powers and undermining the Western alliance is a factor that will not only undermine Europe’s weight in international developments but also endanger the dominance of the United States, which has always been acting in collaboration with the key European powers. Imposing tariffs across the board will backfire, undermining the US and the global economy.
6. A central point to stress is that the rise of Trump is a reflection of the depth of the crisis faced by the global capitalist system and especially by the industrially developed countries of the West. It is at the same time a reflection of the “weakness” of the working-class organizations, trade union and political, of all shades of the “reformist” Left but also the anticapitalist Left.
7. Global capitalism was never really able to overcome the crisis of 2007-8-9 so as to enter a period of dynamic or, at least, significant growth. Particularly Europe, was essentially stagnant throughout the 2010s. Global growth was lower than previous decades and all projections for the current decade, 2020 to 2030, is that it will be the decade with the lowest rate of GDP growth since World War II. The USA fared better than the European countries over the past years, but its GDP growth was low by historical standards, in the region of 2.5% per annum maximum, based on massive fiscal spending (deficit financing) which brought the sovereign debt to unprecedented levels.
8. Whatever growth took place in the course of the last one and a half decades has been at the expense of high budget deficits and rising public (sovereign) debts. In the US the sovereign debt has been in the region of 120-125% in the past couple of years – higher than even in 1946, immediately after WWII. For the OECD (industrial countries) as a whole, the average sovereign debt stands at over 90% of GDP. For Britain it’s around 100% and for some key countries in the EU, like France and Italy, the ratio is around 110% and 140% respectively.
9. At the same time both the share of the European Union and the share of the US in global trade and global production is falling. Trade and production are becoming more and more concentrated in Asia and more specifically around China. This is a reflection of the decline of the West in the global economic sphere and balance of power, as developed in other ISp materials. The trade war started by the US against China in 2017 has played a role in the reduction of the rates of growth of the Chinese GDP, but it has not been able to solve the central problem of US capitalism which is in danger of being overtaken by China.
10. This puts US capitalism in a state of “desperation”, and the rise of Trump is precisely a reflection of this factor. In his own twisted way, he recognizes that the old equilibrium of the imperial and class power of the US bourgeoisie is in severe crisis. He’s now chaotically breaking things in search of something new, seeking to cut a Gordian knot.
11. The crisis of the parties of the Left internationally as well as in the US, is the second crucial factor for the rise of the Far Right in general and of Trump in particular. This too is a reflection of the depth of the capitalist crisis. Reformist currents have a role to play in conditions of economic growth which allow for small concessions to the working class. In conditions of economic crisis, reformists are completely exposed because they have nothing to offer and no other policies than the ones demanded by the bourgeoisie. As a result, not only the old parties of the “Social-democratic” and “Labour” but also “Communist” type (with rare exceptions), have completely capitulated but also the “New Left”, of the kind of SYRIZA, Podemos, Left Block, Corbyn, Sanders, etc, created in the post-Stalinist era, have shown to be completely incapable of offering a way forward. They too, have capitulated and sold out and are in crisis.
12. In the vacuum that was created by the crisis of the parties of the “New Left”, the Anti-capitalist Left failed to intervene, to create sizeable forces of an anti-capitalist character. Instead, it also fell in crisis, with further splits and weakening of its forces, despite the significant opportunities that exist. Thus, the Far Right was able to take advantage of the situation and present itself as the only anti systemic force.

The economy

13. The billionaire class is rallying to the support of Trump, after his electoral victory. The image of Mark Zuckerberg, Bezos, Sundar Pichai, and Musk at the inauguration is not accidental. Their profits are best served by being on the side of the victor and not on that of the defeated. People like Bezos and Musk, need Trump and the state in order to continue getting government contracts. For the super-rich as a whole, Trump offers tax cuts. The targets set by Trump are in the region of $4.5 trillion over 10 years – that’s good reason for the super-rich to be on good terms with Trump.
14. These tax cuts will come supposedly out of slimming out the state sector by sacking hundreds of thousands, and by stopping the financing of services and projects (the most well-known of which is USAID). But if Trump follows through with everything he has proclaimed, then his plans and promises will be up in the air.
15. By sacking hundreds of thousands of workers from the state sector he is undermining the economy by squeezing demand for goods and services. Expelling millions of immigrants, has a similar effect and at the same time is raising production costs.
16. Raising tariffs is the central point of Trump’s economic policy. His conviction is that higher tariffs will lead to increased industrial production at home, revive manufacturing at the expense of imports, and solve the problem of the trade deficit with the rest of the world. He seems to expect that the state will receive additional funds from the higher tariffs, which he can use to cut taxes. Bringing industry back home seems to be what he thinks is the way to face competition from China and “Make America Great Again”.
17. This is not the way the economy functions. It is not an accident that Trump did not try to deny that the US economy could enter recession as a result of his policies. Also, the NY Stock Exchange has seen big drops in the course of February and March.
18. Trump is imposing tariffs of around 25% in every direction but threatening with even more and higher. What was unexpected was that he would direct such tariffs against the EU, Canada and Mexico, the US’s closest partners. After two increases of 10% (i.e. of 20% in total) against China, on top of everything that had already been applied since 2017 initially by Trump and then by Biden, he is threatening with additional tariffs to the level of 60%. He is threatening the BRICS with tariffs of 100% if they try to undermine the dollar’s position in the world economy. He is threatening Canada and the EU with tariffs “far larger than currently planned” if they attempt to “cause economic harm to the US” (whatever that may mean).
19. This is already causing retaliation. China, Canada, the EU, Mexico, Brazil, etc, have either already announced tariffs on US imports as a response, or are contemplating how to react. Higher tariffs will decrease imports into the US but they will also decrease exports from the US to the rest of the planet. The cost of falling US exports could be much higher than the gains from falling imports, to the US economy. TESLA, is one of the first victims of Trump’s policies and, or course, of Musk’s provocative postures: TESLA sales are falling everywhere and collapsing in countries like Canada and Germany. Other US giants, like Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon will face problems – “investigations”, fines, taxes, etc. The US cannot base itself on the home economy to become “great” again – it needs the global economy. Trump’s policies are actually isolating the US from the rest of the global economy – although relations will not entirely break down.
20. Increased tariffs mean slowing down of global trade and global GDP growth. It is not possible to predict with accuracy what will be the final balance. But it is entirely possible to throw the US economy into recession. Higher tariffs will also mean higher inflation, in the US and globally, undermining living standards in the US and internationally.
21. According to the Petterson Institute for International Economics if all of Trump’s declarations on tariffs are implemented, this will mean that they will rise from 2.4% on average to 10.5%. This will take protective measures of the US economy back to the 1950s. It will mean an additional cost of $1,200 US on average for every American household according to the Institute. Similar estimates have been made by other US think tanks.

Class struggle

22. Class polarization and struggle, as a byproduct of Trump’s victory, are inevitable not only in the US but also internationally. Trump was elected with a mandate to improve living standards and bring inflation down. Confidence in the national economy has dropped significantly since he took office. His electoral victory does not signify a permanent move towards MAGA by American workers – if and when he sparks a recession, he can become the victim of the same anger that elected him.
23. The US workers are bound to fight back. It may not be immediate, because many workers will wait to see if Trump’s policies will work in the end, but sooner or later they will begin to move. For the moment, much of the working class is genuinely stunned. Many are searching for ways to fight. Federal workers are joining the union, researchers are protesting. There have been successful attempts at organizing against deportations. Regular protests are taking place at Tesla dealerships.
24. This must be seen in conjunction with the attack on rights, especially against women and lgbt+ people and with the rise of racism against blacks and people of colour. And of course, the issue of the climate crisis which Trump completely discards, can mobilize particularly younger people.
25. The labor movement has made important, though modest, gains. Though the working class as a whole remains very disorganized –under 10% of workers are union members– it is easier today to bring together a room of experienced worker activists. This is promising. The next mass wave of struggle may still be spontaneous, but may also have a stronger core of organized worker-leaders, many of whom have anti-capitalist or socialist ideas. When new mass struggles arise, Marxists’ participation will be critical in advancing organization out of spontaneity.
26. The movement for Palestine is facing dangerous repression. Activists are being held without charge. This is a violation of US norms respecting free speech, and speaks to the severe dangers all movements will face in the future. The peaceful student encampments last year were repressed with unusual force. Trump wants to intimidate the movement as Israel violates the ceasefire. The Palestine solidarity movement has continued with regular activity, but not at the scale of last year’s encampments.
27. Similar processes can be expected to take place internationally. Trump’s administration is providing a boost to the Far Right and fascist organizations/currents globally. The conservative and reactionary agenda of the FR and right-wing populists will cause a backlash in big sections of the populations internationally. Coupled with economic stagnation and probable recession together with rising inflation, class polarization and struggle are bound to increase.

Political vacuum

28. The political vacuum in the US is huge. The Democrats (DP) are in total chaos, and for many average workers the need for a new party (without a clear picture of what that should be) is probably more obvious than ever before. The DP approval ratings are the lowest in history. The left of the DP is in crisis and at crossroads. A revolt may break out within the party, however, revolt within the party without a clear attempt to split on class lines will not provide a way out.
29. Bernie Sanders is raising the idea that candidates should run independent of the Democratic Party. A concerted campaign to run independent candidates and break from the Democratic Party could create solid ground on which a new party could be built. But Sanders appears to frame his call as a way to pressure the DP to reform itself. Trump benefitted from Sanders’ resuscitation of the DP as the leading opposition in 2016 and 2020. The organized left in the labor movement and socialist organizations, has not resolved its own debate about the DP. The DSA candidate for mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, is running as a Democrat and has not suggested intent to run independently if the party defeats him.
30. That said, Sanders may be recognizing early signs of movement energy. He is already drawing larger crowds than either of his Presidential campaigns. The meaning of “independence” and the Democratic Party will have to be contested. Marxists still must continue to patiently advocate in unions, the socialist left, and in new movements, for a party that is more than a pressure campaign on the DP.
31. The labor leadership is also not prepared to push for a new party. Union leaders have also made concessions to Trump. United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain, who supported Harris last year now supports Trump’s tariffs. Sean O’Brien, president of the largest private sector union in the US, spoke at the Republican National Convention.
32. The mass positive response to Luigi Mangione’s killing of Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealthcare is something to be noted – it confirmed the existence of a deep well of class anger in US society. The US is undeniably entering a situation with few precedents.

Europe in despair

33. Trump is destroying every institution that provided some kind of order in the global anarchy of capitalism. The World Trade Organisation, the Paris climate Accord, the World Health Organisation, the G7, the G20, the International Court of Justice, even the UN Security Council are all institutions without much if any meaning, as the US has either officially withdrawn from them or rebuked them. The EU and Britain were tail-ending the US in its trade war against China and proxy wars of the past years, now they find themselves tied up in knots.
34. The European powers (like most other governments and institutions) have been shocked by, among other things, Trump’s demands to take over Greenland, to own the Panama Straights, to evacuate Gaza and turn it into a tourist resort under American ownership, etc. And, also, by the level and character of the attacks against them by Trump and his closest associates. The speech delivered by Trump’s vice president JD Vansto his European colleagues in the Conference on Security held in Munich (Germany) last month (12 February 2024) is quite characteristic:

“We have a new sheriff in town [meaning Trump]… …In Britain and across Europe, free speech, I fear, is in retreat… …It was wrong for Russia to buy social media to influence European elections [referring to Romania] but if your democracy can be destroyed [referring to the fact that the Romanian elections were cancelled by the Hi Court, with the tacit support of the EU] by a few thousand dollars of digital media from a foreign country it was not very strong to begin with… …If you are afraid of the voices, the opinions and the conscience that guide your very own people… …If you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you, nor for that matter is there anything you can do for the American people.”

As if his comments were not enough, Vans left the meeting hastily, in order to… meet the leader of the far-right party AfD, refusing, at the same time, to meet the German chancellor Olaf Scholz!

35. The response of Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice-chancellor, summed up, probably in the most accurate way, the feelings of the European elites:

“Over the course of the weekend in Munich, the Western community of values was terminated here”.

36. As if the attacks and insults against European governments and leaders –until recently the closest allies of the US– were not enough, Musk has explicitly proposed that the US leaves NATO. The question of whether what we see is “the end of the transatlantic alliance” has been raised by a number of capitalist journals and commentators. This doesn’t seem like a realistic perspective, at least at this stage. On the other hand, relations cannot go back to what they were before. The major European powers (France, Britain, Germany) will do everything possible to keep NATO, making sure that they keep the US on board, because the challenges from China and Russia, on the economic and military levels, will continue. But the close relations that existed in the past have come to an end and they cannot be the same again, at least for the foreseeable future.

Ukraine

37. The European powers were essentially dragged into the war in Ukraine, back in 2022, under the pressure of the US and Britain, convincing Zelensky to fight and not to negotiate with Putin (in March 2022, in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine came close to a peace agreement). The U-turn made by the US means that the European powers are left with a war in their hands which raises demands that in reality they cannot fulfill. They pretend to be determined to continue the war and to reject unacceptable terms (eg demanding that the Russian army leaves Ukraine unconditionally…) but this is just to save face. The war against Russia cannot be won. Ukraine was losing, despite the massive US and European assistance. Now that the US is no longer willing to finance the war, the European leaders’ “determination” is empty talk and hypocritical, mainly aiming to show their electoral base that they are fighting it out. The position they find themselves in is that on the one hand they have to hugely increase their military expenditures and at the same time feel the impact of a defeat in Ukraine while Trump is posing as the “peace maker”.
38. They plan to raise massively their expenditure on arms, to the level of about 800 billion euros over the next decade (that’s besides big increases on a national level as well, especially in the case of Germany) at a time when the EU and Britain are facing large budget deficits and high sovereign debts. Because of these they were planning to apply the “Growth and Stability Pact” (GSP) terms of no more than 3% of GDP for budget deficits and no more than 60% of GDP for public debt (the Maastricht criteria on which the EU is based). Applying the conditions of the GSP, in practice means austerity. Instead, now they have to go into an expansionist fiscal policy, spending hundreds of billions of euros to finance the war in Ukraine and to expand and develop military capabilities on a European basis. Budget deficits and public debts will rise as a result of this. In order to avoid formally clashing with the Maastricht Criteria, they decided to not consider the “expenditure on defense” (or at least parts of it) as part of the budget. Thus, they try to kid the European working class that budget deficits and public debts are decreasing, when in fact they will be going up, causing even greater indebtedness and therefore future instability. The working class will of course be called to pay for all this, at the expense of its own standard of living.
39. In order to justify these expenditures, there is a new massive propaganda in Europe about the need to build a “war economy”, asking people to have sufficient food supplies and cash at home, etc. This is taking place all over Europe, from the South to Scandinavia. Italy and Germany are spearheading this new policy of “social militarization” by sending army personnel into the secondary schools to develop the war mongering propaganda and to recruit to the army.

Putin

40. Trump, J.D. Vance, Elon Musk and other key figures in the US administration have treated Zelensky in an absolutely humiliating way but at the same time, they refuse to attack Putin; on the contrary Trump is making friendly gestures – at least until now. This has started a discussion whether Trump’s aim is to develop closer relations with Russia aiming to isolate China.
41. It’s impossible to know what the deeper motives of Trump may be. But any attempt to break away Russia from China, if there is such an intention, will not succeed. Russia and China have built, over the past decades a very close, strategic relationship which is necessary for them in order to overcome the pressure they faced from the West. It cannot be expected from Putin to be ready to undermine Russia’s relation with China just because there has been a change in the US administration. Nobody can be certain that the policies applied by Trump today will be the same in one or two years from today. Also, there is no certainty that the next US administration will follow the same or similar policies to today. It’s not possible to predict how exactly US relations with Russia will develop in the next period, particularly as Russia is not willing to bend to Trump’s pressures for an immediate ceasefire even of a limited character. But what is certain is that for the foreseeable future the present relations between Russia and China will remain strong.

Will Trump win his war against China?

42. At the core of Trump’s MAGA, is the fight against China. China is the one threatening US’s hegemony on the planet, not Europe. The attacks against the European powers are supposed to be part of a strategy to save resources and strengthen the US in its competition with China. The trade war against China was initiated by Trump in 2017 and was further intensified by Biden.
43. One of the declared aims was to cut down the trade surplus of China with the US and the rest of the world. Seven years of trade wars by Trump and by Biden have not solved this problem. China continues to challenge the US on every level not only as regards the quantity of goods that are exported to the rest of the world at lower cost but also as regards the quality of these goods
44. The last few years have seen the dynamic entry of China into the mobile telephone and computer markets of similar quality to the best Western products. Particularly impressive was the “rebirth” of the tech giant Huawei, just when the US had thought that they had finished with it once for all. Then, in the last couple of years, we had the onslaught of China’s electric vehicles and new energy vehicles that have thrown the West’s auto industry into crisis. More recently we have seen China challenging the West’s artificial intelligence, with Deep Seek which has been described as equal or better than ChatGPT and at a much lower cost. It seems also that China is challenging the West on the level of quantum mechanics and space exploration.
45. Years ago, ISp took the position that the trade war of the West against China would have as a result to slow down the growth of China and probably delay its overtaking of the US economy but it would not be able to stop/prevent it. If we look at the facts and figures of today, we can say that the policies applied by the US, followed by Europe, have not succeeded in their aims.
46. Thus, for example, China’s trade surplus, despite 7 years of trade war, soared to a record last year, reaching an unprecedented 992 billion US dollars in 2024. This was 21% higher compared to the previous year, and the highest ever since statistics began to be kept in 1998.
47. The new tariffs imposed by Trump against China will of course have an impact on China’s GDP, but this cannot be of a decisive character. The total amount of Chinese exports to the US is only around 3% of the Chinese GDP. So however high tariffs Trump’s administration imposes on China, they will have a limited impact on the Chinese economy. Especially so, as over the past years China has been diverting its exports, precisely because of the Wests’ trade war, through bilateral and regional trade agreements. Seeing that relations with the US and the EU are getting more and more sour, China turned to the rest of the planet – Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. The same is the case with Chinese capital invested abroad.
48. This is linked to the development of BRICS, the economic alliance of China, India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, United Arab Emirates and others., which Trump has threatened with tariffs of up to 100% if they try to undermine the dominance of the dollar in the global economy. This kind of threats are actually pushing countries towards China and away from the United States.
49. What is more probable is that Trump’s policies will not isolate China from the rest of the global economy and increase the United States share in it, but produce the opposite effect, i.e., lead to an increase in trade between the rest of the world at the expense of the United States.
50. This is relevant to the European powers as well, despite the deep and long-standing relations between Europe and the US. Since the beginning of the trade war between the US and China, the EU also joined under the pressure of the US, but at its own big expense. Since then, it has been losing ground in the Chinese market and, also, its supply chains, to a large extent based in China, have been adversely affected. That’s one of the reasons why some of its major industries like the auto industry are in crisis.
51. Given the present Trump Administration’s policies a discussion has already started in European bourgeois media that Trump may be a bigger enemy than China. A gradual turn towards more “balanced” relations with China on the part of the EU would seem, on the balance of probabilities, to be a genuine possibility.

Fascism?

52. Elon Musk’s Nazi salute and the erratic behavior of Trump and his cabinet have added fuel to the ongoing discussion about whether Trump is a fascist. Big sections of the DP describe Trump as a fascist; they used this argument in their election campaign and had the illusion that in this way they could stop Trump. The dehumanizing way in which Trump talks about immigrants is compared to the Nazi’s persecution of the Jews. The idea floated by Trump that Canada could be annexed to become the 51st state is compared to Hitlers’ annexation of Austria in 1938.
53. Beyond the bourgeois and their press, quite a few on the Left have also raised the idea that the Trump regime is “fascistic”. Some have coined the term “creeping fascism” to say that a process of a fascist regime being implemented by Trump is not completed, but is slowly underway. Others have used the term “Meta-fascism”. But such attempts do not clarify the issue, they rather blur it.
54. Of course, there are elements of authoritarianism In Trump’s administration but this is different from fascism or an authoritarian state/regime. We have developed this extensively in other material. There are many regimes that can be described as FR or right-wing populist internationally, there are significant Nazi groups inside FR parties internationally, but the conditions for the establishment of fascism in the US or the rest of the industrially developed countries do not exist today.
55. Of course, Elon Musk’s Nazi salute cannot be considered as something accidental or of no significance. But the point is not what Elon Musk, personally, is or may become in the future – and the same is true for Trump. Fascism is not something related to the characteristics or aspirations of this or that individual. It’s a regime which crashes every democratic right not only of the working class but even of the ruling class (i.e. parliamentary democracy) – through the use of frenzied layers whose lives have been destroyed by the crisis. Nothing of the sort exists in the US today and nothing of the sort can develop in the next period, because the conditions for this do not exist and the balance of class forces in society does not allow this to happen.
56. Hitler rose to power on January 30, 1933. By the end of February, he issued the “Decree for the Protection of People and State”, which suspended civil liberties, including freedom of speech, press and assembly, and allowed for the arrest of political opponents. By the end of March, the “Enabling Act” (officially called the “Law to Remedy the Distress of People and Reich”) was put into effect, which granted Hitler the power to enact laws without the approval of parliament. By May 1933, all trade unions were dissolved and replaced by the German Labour Front (DAF), which was controlled by the Nazi Party. By July 1933 all political parties, except the Nazis, were banned. This included right-wing and even far-right parties. Under a process called Gleichschaltung (Coordination), the Nazi regime forced all political, social and economic institutions to abide by the Nazi ideology. The Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda, led by Goebbels, ensured that all information disseminated to the public aligned with Nazi ideology. Books deemed “un-German” were burned in public ceremonies. By 1934, Hitler even purged his own party of potential rivals and critics in the “Night of the Long Knives”. His Führerprinzip (Leader Principle) established him as the supreme leader, with absolute authority over all aspects of government and society. In the decade before coming to power, the Nazis established a paramilitary organisation, the SA (Sturmabteilung – “Storm Troops”). By January 1932, the SA numbered approximately 400,000 militants. When it came to power in 1933, the Nazi Party had over 2 million members. In the Nuremberg rally of 1934, 700,000 people were present.
57. There are major differences between today and the 1930s. On the one hand the crisis of capitalism was much deeper than today, creating millions of destroyed frenzied petit bourgeois layers, who became Hitler’s storm troops. On the other, the ruling class was worried of the prospect of imminent revolution – the Soviet Union was seen by the capitalists as a real threat to their power. As a result, the ruling class turned to Hitler.
58. These factors do not exist today. Not only this, but in whichever country they develop at a later stage, the ruling class knows that fascism is a double-edged weapon and they cannot simply give it a free run. But it should also be clear that under conditions of severe economic crisis and threat of revolution, sections of the ruling class will turn to fascism.
59. The establishment of a fascist regime is the final stage in a struggle that ends with the defeat of the working class – a defeat of historic and strategic character. We are not there. We are at the beginning of a process that can lead in that direction. This means there is time to gather the forces that will fight against the “fascistic perspective” of one kind or another, which in practice means to fight for the victory of the socialist revolution.

Dangers and opportunities

60. It is impossible to predict exactly how things will develop. Trump changes his mind all too frequently. Even if he implements everything he has declared, it’s still impossible to predict accurately the impact on the economy either of the US or globally. But it’s clear that the initial impact will be to push the US and the global economy in the direction of lower growth rates and recession. At the same time, class struggle and class polarization will be intensifying, in the US and internationally.
61. Trump’s policies will most probably backfire. The rift between the US and the EU is of fundamental importance and is actually weakening the US in its attempt to contain China (and Russia). The crisis of the EU, already deep, will intensify because it will be faced with even greater challenges that it cannot respond to. This is despite the fact that additional efforts will be made in the direction of greater convergence especially on the level of military expenditure. The EU’s turn in the direction of “social militarization” and a “war economy”, at faster rates than in the previous years, will be at the expense of social services and the living standards of the working class. This will be an additional factor for radicalization in Europe.
62. Trump represents a serious danger on many levels for the US but also the international working class because of the boost it gives to the FR internationally and the reactionary-conservative ideas that are implanted into society. But at the same time, it creates opportunities for Marxist forces, precisely because it intensifies class struggle and class polarization. The rise of the FR, with their reactionary and conservative ideas, is bound to cause a reaction, especially in younger layers, and a feeling that we need to fight back. This will be combined with the attacks by Trump’s administration (and the rest of the FR) on women, lgbtq+ people, environment, democratic rights, immigrants, etc. All these in the context of declining economic growth, falling living standards, rising military expenditure and tax concessions to the rich, will have an impact on consciousness, pushing significant sections in a left radical direction.
63. Marxists need to fully grasp the potential opportunities that open up, as a result of Trump’s reactionary agenda, and aim to build sizeable Marxist organizations internationally, which are the absolutely necessary tool in order to ditch capitalism and all its reactionary aspects and lay the basis for an alternative socialist society.