by Matthew J
Trump has instituted a state of shock and awe in the US. The point is to induce terror and confusion. Trump, in his own twisted way, recognizes that the old equilibrium of the imperial and class power of the US bourgeoisie is in severe crisis. He is now chaotically breaking things in search of something new. He seeks to cut the gordian knot.
Trump is ready to make drastic changes but, in comparison to the Reagan administration of the 1980’s, he does not yet seem to have a consistent vision for a new order and he has a crude understanding of his own weapons. A new equilibrium for US capitalism and the world crisis of neoliberal decay has not yet arrived.
Opposition to the new administration is beginning to mobilize on the streets, and Trump’s polling numbers have already dipped. There is mass anger. But activity remains far behind Trump’s first term, and the organized left and labor movements face the situation from a very weak standpoint.
Trump firmly retains the initiative, but the situation is highly contingent. The President is dramatically and blatantly overreaching after being elected to improve the economy and end wars. An economic, political, and social crisis is brewing. The movement is faced with the task of breaking through shock and demoralization, and returning to the streets in truly mass numbers.
There is a dangerous maelstrom coming that will likely see Trump reach for greater measures of authoritarianism and violent repression. This should be taken seriously, but the Left must loudly insist that Trump can be pushed back and defeated and oppose false doom and gloom. Trump faced the largest movement in US history 5 years ago. The right wing has not crushed this spirit. When mobilized and organized, opposition to Trump is a truly powerful mass force. The biggest danger is that a rotten Democratic and liberal establishment blocks efforts to challenge the President out of fear that all elites will be swept up in the waves of mass anger.
Trump’s New World
What does Trump mean for the future of US democracy and for the future of global capitalism, neoliberalism, and so on? It’s clear that Trump’s actions are radically reshaping the US system, but we have yet to see the full implications.
Musk’s radical reshaping of the administrative state, Trump’s challenges to judicial checks on his power, and the naked political repression of Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil are first tastes of what’s to come. The result may be a state run by capitalist gangsters, providing advantages to loyal capitalists while using state institutions to repress opposition. But at the same time we must take clear distances from attempts to describe Trump’s regime as a fascist one – fascism is the final defeat, and one of historical proportions, for the working class and the oppressed. We are not at all there, we are actually at the beginning of the struggle against Trump’s authoritarian and anti-working class policies. It’s impossible to say how much will be rolled back by Trump’s and by future administrations. But doubtless, future Presidents of either party will take advantage of precedents set by Trump.
Economically, the picture is contingent. Radical changes are more likely to develop out of an economic crisis than any of Trump’s stated goals. Without a world-historic industrial plan, tariffs will not rebuild US manufacturing capacity, as Trump claims. Electronics manufacturing, for example, relies on an extremely sophisticated network of parts manufacturers and distributors in East Asia. To avoid tariffs on component parts, a significant part of the global division of labor would need to be duplicated within the US, and would rely on expensive US labor power.
We are still in the midst of the storm, and a post-Trump world is too far off to predict. But it’s worth considering Trump’s unique power relies on his movement base. No one has been able to copy or steal his base, and the old Republican party will not come back. He is able to stitch together a coalition that includes enthusiastic billionaires like Elon Musk, pragmatic ones like Jeff Bezos, and right-wing movement leaders like Steve Bannon. Bannon was a high-profile supporter of the January 6th insurrection attempt and represents the movement base of Trumpism. Bannon has called Musk an “oligarch” and a “parasitic immigrant” who will “abandon” the movement. The future of Trump’s economic and political project will depend on how this uneasy class coalition maintains or fragments.
Trump & The Billionaires
Trump has stronger support from the capitalist class than his previous administration. The image of Mark Zuckerberg, Bezos, Sundar Pichai, and Musk at the inauguration is more than symbolic.
Trump provides privileged access to the state. Musk and Bezos need government contracts in their race into space, and Musk is outfitting federal agencies with his Starlink internet provider. Zuckerberg’s turn towards Trump is symbolic of tech billionaires’ desire to reassert control over increasingly activist workers, who have protested against sexual harrassment, genocide in Gaza, work-from-home policy and much more.
But not all billionaires are Musk or Bezos. For the rest, Trump offers the red meat of tax cuts. Trump’s tax cuts are estimated to cut $4.5 trillion over 10 years. But at the same time, his tariff policies are difficult to follow even for the ruling class, and cutting into already low profit margins. The bourgeoisie’s shaken confidence is reflected in the dramatic drops in the stock market in the weeks following his inauguration.
Further, tariffs create a real threat of recession, which Trump has not attempted to deny. A recession which would dramatically reshape global politics and the terrain of the class struggle, as the recession of 08-09 did. He may want to initiate a recession on purpose like the Reagan administration, to set new precedents during a moment of crisis.
How Will Struggle Reemerge?
Trump was elected with a mandate to improve the cost of living and bring down inflation. Confidence in the national economy has dropped significantly since he took office. His electoral victory does not signify a permanent move towards MAGA by American workers – if and when he sparks a recession he can become the victim of the same anger that elected him. Further, Trump’s policies can push the capitalist class into intensifying class struggle, which could open opportunities for working-class unity against him and the billionaires.
For the moment, much of the working class is genuinely stunned. Many are searching for ways to fight. Federal workers are joining the union, researchers are protesting. There have been successful attempts at organizing against deportations. Regular protests are taking place at Tesla dealerships. There are many sparks of hope, but the fire has yet to spread. Inspiration may come from international mobilizations, for example, in Turkey.
The labor movement has made important, though modest, gains. Though the working class as a whole remains very disorganized – under 10% of workers are union members – it is easier today to bring together a room of experienced worker activists than any time in the past two decades. This is very promising. The next mass wave of struggle may still be spontaneous, but will have a stronger core of organized worker-leaders, many of whom have anti-capitalist or socialist ideas. But on the grander scale, this new generation still lacks the experience of previous generations. When new mass struggles arise, Marxists’ participation will be critical in advancing organization out of spontaneity.
The movement for Palestine is facing dangerous repression. The activist leader Mahmoud Khalil is being held without charge. This is a violation of US norms respecting free speech and speaks to the severe dangers all movements will face in the future. The extremely peaceful student encampments last year were repressed with unusual force. Trump wants to intimidate the movement as Israel violates the ceasefire. The Palestine solidarity movement has continued with regular activity, but not at the scale of last year’s encampments.
A New Party is Needed, But Challenges Remain
The Democrats are in total chaos, and for many average workers the need for a new party (without a clear picture of what that should be) is probably more obvious than ever before. Their approval ratings are the lowest in history, and a revolt may break out within the party. However, revolt within the party without a clear attempt to split on class lines will not provide a way out. The window of opportunity may pass again.
Bernie Sanders is raising the idea that candidates should run independent of the Democratic Party. A concerted campaign to run independent candidates and break from the Democratic Party could create solid ground on which a new party could be built. But Sanders appears to frame his call as a way to pressure the Democratic Party to reform itself again. Trump benefited from Sanders’ resuscitation of the Democrats as the leading opposition in 2016 and 2020. The organized left in the labor movement and socialist organizations has not resolved its own debate about the Democratic Party. The DSA candidate for mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, is running as a Democrat and has not suggested intent to run independently if the party defeats him.
That said, Sanders may be recognizing early signs of movement energy. He is already drawing larger crowds than either of his Presidential campaigns .The meaning of “independence” and the Democratic Party will have to be contested. Marxists still must continue to patiently advocate in our unions, the socialist left, and in new movements for a party that is more than a pressure campaign on the Democrats.
The labor leadership is also not prepared to push for a new party. Union leaders have also made concessions to Trump. United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain, who supported Harris last year now supports Trump’s tariffs. Sean O’Brien, president of the largest private sector union in the US, spoke at the Republican National Convention.
The response to Luigi Mangione’s actions confirmed the existence of a deep well of class anger in US society. With extreme anger, and no viable answers provided, there is a danger of a rise in political violence. A rise in political violence, even from non-left actors like Mangione or Trump’s two would-be assassins, would allow Trump and the government to scapegoat and repress the left.
We are undeniably entering a situation with few precedents. The Left and working class movement is the key lever with which the situation can be shifted. Despite the obstacles, the US Left and working class face major opportunities. Socialists and trade unionists should be ready to fight back against the coming attacks, to learn and digest lessons, to build a powerful socialist left in the US and a new party for the working class.
