Sinn Fein have been rocked by a series of crises over the course of the last three weeks. One revelation after another has left the party on the defensive. A General Election is expected to be called in Ireland any day and this is not a position that Sinn Fein expected to be in a year ago.
One year ago, Sinn Fein were riding high in the polls, regularly scoring between 30 and 35%. If these numbers were achieved in an election the result would have made them the largest party in the Dail (Irish parliament). There was widespread expectation that they would lead the next government. This, in fact, was never the most likely prospect, as the two largest traditional capitalist parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, would have moved to form a coalition, involving other smaller parties, if necessary.
Today, Sinn Fein sits at 16-18% of the polls. It was hoping for a better showing when an election was called, and this might well still happen. It was not expecting two of its TDs (members of the Dail) to resign from the party in October. Both have issued a stinging attack on the party leadership. The first to go complained of the suppression of free speech within the Party in her resignation statement. She alleged the social media postings are controlled rigidly and that questions critical of the party leadership were not allowed at a party meeting in her area.
A few days later, a second TD, Brian Stanley resigned. He had been a very prominent member of the party of 40 years standing and was chair of the most powerful scrutiny committee in the Dail. The background to his resignation remains unclear. It appears that allegations were first made against him, but the source of the allegations and the content is unknown. He made counter-allegations, and an internal party inquiry was established. He resigned from the party shortly before the inquiry was to report, denouncing the process as a “kangaroo court”. Once he had resigned, Sinn Fein handed the case over to the Gardai (the Irish police force). More details are likely to emerge in the coming weeks.
Before either of these resignations, it had emerged that two prominent members of the Sinn Fein press department at the Northern Ireland Assembly had given employment references to another press officer who had left his post whilst he was under investigation on child abuse charges. He was later convicted after pleading guilty and is awaiting sentencing. It appears that the Sinn Fein officials knew of the allegations, but gave him job references, nevertheless. When details emerged Sinn Fein’s initial reaction was to blame others for any shortcomings in safeguarding. Details were only revealed grudgingly and under pressure.
Quickly another scandal broke when it emerged involving Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile, the Sinn Fein leader in the Irish Senate (the second house of parliament). O Donnghaile resigned from his position and from the party late in 2023 for what were stated to be “health reasons”. In fact his downfall was a result of a complaint by a 16-year-old member of Ogra Sinn Fein (the party’s youth wing) that O Donnghaile had sent him inappropriate texts. In December 2023 Sinn Fein leaders had marked his departure with glowing references to his career in the party. Again, Sinn Fein was slow to give answers, acted defensively, and appeared to blame others for any errors.
As the turmoil continued a further incident caused Sinn Fein even more embarrassment. A Sinn Fein member, employee, and son of a prominent member of the Assembly resigned after admitting that he had vandalised the portrait of a previous Unionist mayor of Belfast at an event in Belfast City Hall. The event had been organised to mark the twentieth anniversary of an Irish language campaign group and was attended by senior Sinn Fein members, including Gerry Adams, its previous leader. The incident demonstrates the continuing abrasive attitude Sinn Fein and its members have towards the symbols and representatives of Ulster unionism, whatever the fine words about a future united Ireland.
Leadership on the Defensive
As each allegation has come to public attention, the leading Sinn Fein figures north and south, Mary-Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill, have been required to give statements explaining and defending Sinn Fein’s position. Their performance has been halting and has only served to further stoke the fans of controversy. They have given all the appearances of only saying what they needed to say and not being fully honest and transparent. Their repeated assertions of a strong and solid position on the safeguarding of young people have been undermined by the actions of their press officers in issuing references. Michelle O’Neill has been ridiculed for claiming not to have seen the press officer against whom the allegations of child abuse had been made when he was photographed standing only yards away from her at an event in Stormont. By then he was employed by a charity (the British Heart Foundation) after the references from his previous colleagues helped him secure the job.
Sinn Fein have not been able to maintain their usual sure footed and professional image. In part, this is because of the culture of secrecy that dominates the thinking of a party and a movement which was based on conspiratorial methods for decades. Their instinct is to close ranks and to say little to anyone outside the party, unless forced to do so.
All of these events are taking place in the days before the expected announcement of a general election in the south of Ireland. Its poll numbers are only half of what it the scored a year ago. In the local elections in June, it won only 18% and did much worse than expected. Recent events may do some further damage and will certainly make it harder for it to regain momentum. In the last previous electoral cycle, a strong general election performance followed a weak local council election result however, and it was hoping to repeat this, and it may succeed.
Sinn Fein Riding Two Horses
Once the election is called, the recent scandals will almost certainly quickly fade into the background. The main political parties north and south have criticised Sinn Fein but have also been careful with their words. All parties are very aware that scandals could emerge which reflect badly on their own safeguarding policies, and that any sharp attacks in Sinn Fein could rebound.
Sinn Fein will once again try to ride two horses. It will present its radical face in working class areas, even though any semblance of socialist policies were dropped many years ago. It will simultaneously emphasise that it is a party that can be trusted to take over the reins of government and that it represents no threat to capitalism.
Despite all its attempts it is not the preferred party of the capitalist ruling class. Its past history, but even more so its present agitation for a border poll and a united Ireland, worry the rich business figures who dominate society. If Sinn Fein were to be in power north and south, it would increase its rhetoric around a united Ireland and introduce further instability into the system.
If its poll numbers do not change Sinn Fein may neither gain nor lose TDs in the election. It cannot be ruled out that it will recover ground during the election campaign period and will emerge in a stronger state, but it is almost certainly excluded that it will emerge as the largest party.
Sinn Fein is a party which based on sectarian division in the north which only ever win votes from one community. In the south its false radicalism is more and more drowned out by its efforts to win favour from the ruling class. It offers no way forward whatsoever for working class people. In the election, there will be genuine left candidates standing in nearly every seat. A strong left vote will help to build the mass political alternative that we need to challenge a system that does not deliver for working people.
