The Irish general election campaign has been one of the quietest in decades to date. There have been few significant developments and little evidence of change in party support as expressed in opinion polls. This could all change in the last few days before voting on November 29th and there are some early signs of this.
An opinion poll published by the Irish Independent newspaper on Sunday 24th showed the three main parties on very similar levels of support, as are the “independents”. Fine Gael have fallen back and are now on 22% whilst Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein are on 20% respectfully. “Independents”, a broad category which includes the white right-wing party “Independent Ireland”, but also many dozens of others across the political spectrum, is on 19%.
The remaining fifth of the electorate are divided between Aontu, a populist split from Sinn Fein, which is now on 5%; the Labour Party, which has never recovered from its years of betrayal in coalition with the right on 4%; the Social Democrats who split from Labour and sit marginally to its left on 5%; the Green Party which has lost support as a result of its participation in the outgoing coalition government on 3%; and the left alliance People Before Profit-Solidarity on 2%.
A Coalition Government is Certain but Which Parties Uncertain
If these numbers are replicated on polling day the outgoing Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition axis will sit on 40-45%. Its number of TDS will not be sufficient to form a government, and it will require allies. The Green Party is unlikely to have enough TDS to get Fianna Fail and Fine Gael across the line. It is probable that several right-wing independents will enter the government, an obvious recipe for instability.
Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael continue to rule out the possibility of a coalition government with Sinn Fein. It is not likely that this will change after the election though it cannot be entirely excluded. Sinn Fein will be happy with its place in the opinion polls, given that it had fallen lower in recent months and was battered by a series of scandals in the run up to the election period. Polls often understate its support, and it is probable that it will gain seats, but not as many as it once hoped given that it was ahead of all parties by a considerable margin in opinion polls one year ago.
People Before Profit-Solidarity does not appear to have benefitted in national opinion polls from its decision to stand in almost every constituency. Its vote will hold up, however, where it has existing seats and it may well return every one of its sitting TDs, though this is far from certain. Given the vagaries of the electoral process, it might lose one or two seats, but it is also possible that it might pick up one or two. Other left groups or independents such as Joan Collins, will probably win their seats. Clare Daly, who lost her European Parliament seat a few months ago is standing in Dublin Central. She is a very well-known candidate and may make a breakthrough but will be very difficult in a tightly contested seat where Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald is also a candidate.
False Promises from Pro-Capitalist Parties
The key election issues remain as before: housing, health and immigration. The pro-capitalist parties have harder positions on immigration than in the past, as they are all concerned about losing votes to a range of right-wing small parties and independents. Five far right councillors were elected in the June this year, and the election is taking place one year after the riots in Dublin City Centre sparked by far-right activists.
The electorate are faced with a bewildering series of promises from the pro-capitalist parties on health and housing. None of this will amount to anything, whether these parties are in or out of government. Sinn Fein have put forward proposals which are more convincing, and this will help to bolster their vote. Sinn Fein are concerned about losing votes to right wing populists but also to Aontu which has risen the polls and whose leader, Peadar Toibin, is articulate and energetic. Aontu put forward a peculiar mix of policies, some of which are “left” in coloration, but also including a hard position on border controls and the sacking of “inefficient civil servants”.
Exposing the Rich and the Powerful
Two events in the last days are of importance. Both expose the arrogance and elitism of those in power and those with wealth. Events such as these are sometimes decisive.
Conor McGregor, the internationally known mixed martial arts fighter, lost a civil court case taken by Nikita Hand who accused him of raping her in a Dublin hotel. The case has resulted in anger and outrage that he was not prosecuted in a criminal court due to a Director of Public Prosecutions decision. Candidates on the left who have taken a firm position on sexual violence against women can point to this case as clear evidence that there is a lack of justice for all women in the courts, but especially women faced with assailants who are prominent and powerful.
Also in the last days Simon Harris, the leader of Fine Gael, and the person most widely expected to be the next Taoiseach, has faced widespread criticism after his dismissive attitude to a disability care worker Charlotte Fallon, who stopped him in the street. He has apologised but the image of a senior politician dismissing a low paid worker in a casual manner may yet be defining image of the campaign. Fine Gael went up in the polls when Harris became the new party later, a few months ago. He had a youthful and energetic image, but he has damaged himself in a moment. His actions will probably cost Fine Gael seats and may make talks to form a coalition more complicated than they would have been if he had stayed at home on that day and not been questioned by Charlotte Fallon.
