Taiwan Strait on the Brink
As tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has grown increasingly volatile. Former US President Biden approved nine arms sale to Taiwan since taking office, with the latest deal exceeding $600 million. Over the past decade, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have surpassed $37 billion. In addition, frequent visits by U.S. lawmakers and former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s trips to the U.S. underscore both governments’ intent to bolster military deployment in Taiwan.
At the end of 2022, the Taiwanese government announced an extension of compulsory military service to one year. In February 2023, the government introduced a draft amendment to the All-out Defense Mobilization Readiness Act (ADMRA), further signaling Taiwan’s commitment to strengthening its national defense.
However, extending military service not only raises concerns about young people’s democratic rights but also directly impacts their safety. In this article, we examine the implications of military conscription, its link to the U.S.-China conflict, and the real effects of this policy change.
Both Sides Contributed to the Extension
If war were to break out in the Taiwan Strait today, it would ultimately be a conflict between U.S. and Chinese imperialism, driven by their struggle for dominance. Regardless of the justifications—whether framed as the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” or the “defense of freedom and democracy”—the real objective remains the same: securing markets and resources to benefit the domestic bourgeoisie.
As Trotsky wrote, commenting on Lenin’s Imperialism,
“Imperialism is that stage of capitalism when the latter, after fulfilling everything in its power, begins to decline.” The cause for decline lies in this, that the productive forces are fettered by the framework of private property as well as by the boundaries of the national state. Imperialism seeks to divide and redivide the world. In place of national wars there come imperialist wars. They are utterly reactionary in character and are an expression of the impasse, stagnation, and decay of monopoly capital.
This perspective is not exclusive to Marxists. A fundamental reality stands out in all analyses: China is expanding and challenging U.S. hegemony. This is an inherent contradiction of capitalism—U.S. capitalism gradually weakens as China’s industrial transformation accelerates. In response, the U.S. seeks to suppress China’s economic rise, particularly in key industries, to maintain its dominance. Trade and tech wars are just components of this broader imperialist competition, with military conflict being its most extreme manifestation.
Within this U.S.-China struggle, Taiwan faces a bleak choice: submission to Chinese imperialism or becoming collateral damage in America’s efforts to contain its rival—neither of which benefits Taiwan’s working class. Accepting Chinese rule would mean the loss of hard-earned democratic rights. Meanwhile, history shows that the U.S. has no real interest in protecting Taiwan beyond using it as a strategic pawn against China. It was U.S. support that kept the Kuomintang (KMT) dictatorship afloat for decades, and its influence remains deeply embedded in Taiwan’s political landscape. Similarly, NATO played a key role in escalating the Ukraine war.
As a fully pro-American administration, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) aligns its national policies with U.S. strategy toward China. While the DPP insists it faces “no pressure from the U.S.,” the extension of military service was not solely a reaction to Chinese military drills following Pelosi’s visit—it was also influenced by U.S. arms sales. Beyond fortifying Taiwan to weaken China in the long run, the U.S. has another objective: fueling fear of war among the Taiwanese people to facilitate the transfer of semiconductor technology and assets to the U.S., ensuring strategic independence and reducing the risks of potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The Impact of Military Service Extension on Youth
Μale citizens born after 2005 will be required to serve one year in the military. But how will this policy affect young people?
While surveys indicate that over 70% of Taiwanese people support the extension, this sentiment does not necessarily reflect the views of the youth directly affected by the policy. In a street interview conducted by Taiwanese YouTuber Charcoal, most students expressed opposition to the extension. This ambivalence is also evident in broader polling—another survey revealed widespread dissatisfaction with President Tsai Ing-wen’s handling of relations with China. This suggests that support for longer military service is not primarily driven by a strong desire to defend the country and democracy. If it were, why would so many people be critical of Tsai’s China policy? Instead, part of the support may stem from resentment among older generations toward what they perceive as the “soft” nature of Gen Z.
Concerns have also been raised about the quality of military training. Many young people argue that military service is largely a waste of time, as Taiwan’s armed forces have already reached their training capacity. As a result, conscripts often spend more time performing menial chores than receiving actual military instruction.
Beyond training, another major issue is the public’s lack of confidence in Taiwan’s military. According to surveys, 75% of respondents doubt the army’s combat capabilities. This perception translates into widespread defeatism among the youth—many believe they would stand little chance against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and fear being used as cannon fodder. The deeper problem is not just resistance to conscription but the military’s overall credibility.
The Corrupt Military System
In many countries, the authoritarian structure of military forces places immense psychological pressure on rank-and-file soldiers, often leading to stress and suicide. Taiwan is no exception. Since 2012, mental illness has accounted for 80% of all military officer discharges—far exceeding expectations and raising public concern over the army’s high-pressure environment. While the military has promised to “improve psychological counseling,” investigations by the Control Yuan reveal a deeper issue: since 2019, more than 8,000 military personnel have applied for discharge, with soldiers making up 90% of those cases. Among self-harm incidents over the past decade, non-commissioned officers and soldiers accounted for over 75%. These figures make it clear that the army’s psychological counseling and suicide prevention measures are little more than formalities.
Beyond mental health concerns, corruption is also widespread among military officers. Alcoholism and embezzlement are not uncommon. In January 2016, news broke that four officers had misappropriated nearly NT$100,000 in public funds for drinking. This scandal followed a 2015 Air Force case in which officers were caught using military funds to hire escorts. Such incidents expose the stark double standard within the military—while rank-and-file soldiers endure strict discipline and authoritarian control, corruption runs rampant among officers. Under this system, ordinary soldiers face immense pressure with no outlet for relief. Many end up in self-harm incidents or even suicide attempts not being able to stand this pressure.
A Left-Wing Anti-War Movement for Peace and Security
Forcing young people into a high-pressure, authoritarian military environment does not make Taiwan “safer.” Instead, it turns them into cannon fodder in the event of a U.S.-led military confrontation.
The shortcomings in the way the Taiwanese army operates must be addressed. No matter how many young people are conscripted or how long they serve, these fundamental problems will persist unless they are resolved.
However, reforms in the military alone are not enough. The only true path to peace lies in building a left-wing anti-war movement that unites the people of China, the U.S., and Taiwan in opposition to imperialism and capitalist expansion. Only through such a movement—fighting for democracy, peace, and workers’ rights worldwide—can lasting security be achieved.
